Polling typically has a much higher nonresponse rate than other surveys,
yet is given great weight by the media as it often seems to provide
plausible predictions. What is the justification for this? Are there
reasons to expect robustness? In particular, what can be said about the
ratio of sampling to nonsampling error.
What can be said, too, about the seemingly careless treatment of the
margin of survey error in polling, notably when assessing whether one
candidate has a "statistically significant" lead. Are the reporters
choosing to ignore a properly calculated larger margin of error? Maybe
just to have a headline?
Finally, how can the election poll results be used as a teaching tool to
increase the quantitative literacy of students and illustrate the value of
our profession to students who are not statistics majors.
Meet the speaker in Room 212 Cockins Hall at 4:30
p.m. Refreshments will be served.
