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Department of Statistics, The Ohio State University
Statistics and Biostatistics Colloquium Series
Functional ANOVA Models for Comparing Sources of Variability
in Climate Model Output
Cari Kaufman
Department of Statistics, University of California, Berkeley
3:30PM - Thursday, November 20, 2008
Room 170, Eighteenth Avenue Bldg. (EA 170)
ABSTRACT
Functional analysis of variance (ANOVA) models partition a functional
response according to the main effects and interactions of various
factors. Motivated by the question of how to compare the sources of
variability in climate models run under various conditions, we develop
a general framework for functional ANOVA modeling from a Bayesian
viewpoint, assigning Gaussian process prior distributions to each batch
of functional effects. We discuss computationally efficient strategies
for posterior sampling using Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms, and we
emphasize useful graphical summaries based on the posterior distribution
of model-based analogues of the traditional ANOVA decompositions
of variance. We present a case study using these methods to analyze
data from the Prudence Project, a climate model inter-comparison study
providing ensembles of climate projections over Europe.
Meet the speaker in Room 212 Cockins Hall at 4:30
p.m. Refreshments will be served.
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